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Why Indian stock market is likely to be volatile in October? Hint: US elections

Submitted by admin on October 1st, 2024

The Indian stock market opened on a weak note with Nifty 50 falling down 0.45% and BSE Sensex declining by 0.42% ahead of highly anticipated increased volatility in the days ahead.
The Indian stock market opened with a decline on September 30. This was influenced mainly by upward volatility in equities worldwide, and considering that US elections are fast approaching, the uncertainty surrounding that was witnessed. The Nifty 50 index opened at 26,061.30 points, dropped by 0.45 per cent or 117.65 points, and BSE Sensex dipped by 363 points or 0.42% during the opening, settling at 85,208.76 points.

All sectors open in the red except Nifty Metal, Nifty FMCG, and Nifty Pharma. Top gainers of Nifty 50 are NTPC, Hindalco, BPCL, JSW Steel, and Tata Steel while top losers are Hero MotoCorp, Tech Mahindra, Infosys, Nestle India, and ICICI Bank.

US elections: An Indian perspective

Experts said volatility in the stock market tends to increase ahead of US presidential elections. They, however, said that the rally in stocks is likely to return once the elections are concluded.
Ajay Bagga, banking and market expert, said, “India is a beneficiary of the rate cuts as a vibrant emerging market. We are entering a historically weak month for US equities, which normally weaken going into the Presidential Elections and then rally, irrespective of the result for the US Presidency, the Senate and the US House of Representatives.”.

He said that “the tight contest this time around raises the spectre of many days and weeks of uncertainty and recounts in close, swing states. That will lead to market volatility for sure. Fasten seatbelts for a very interesting October but stay invested. It’s not going to be an easy October nor a one-way market”

How are global stock markets doing?

Chinese and Hong Kong markets rallied in the Asian markets due to stimulus measures unleashed on both the monetary and fiscal policy fronts. The Chinese market cap has risen by USD 1.3 trillion over the last week, and the Hong Kong market cap is up by USD 500 billion. The Shanghai Composite surged by more than 5 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.95 per cent.